Analysis of geo-efficient coronal mass ejections on May 10–12, 2024, in the flux of solar wind and cosmic rays at ground level

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Abstract

A method for determining a complex operational predictor of space weather disturbance is proposed. The calculations are based on different types of time series: solar activity in the radio and gamma bands, solar wind energy, variations in the flux of cosmic rays according to the data of the world network of neutron monitors and the multidirectional muon hodoscope. The technique has been tested in the analysis of a powerful geomagnetic disturbance (Dst = −412 nT). The sequence of predictors was obtained in "real" time ranging from 2–3 days to several hours.

About the authors

V. V Borog

National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute)

Email: vvborog@mephi.ru
Moscow, Russia

I. I Astapov

National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute)

Moscow, Russia

N. S Barbashina

National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute)

Moscow, Russia

Y. N Mishutina

National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute)

Moscow, Russia

V. V Shutenko

National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute)

Moscow, Russia

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